¿Podría terminar China como América Latina?

Andy Xie, el incisivo economista que analiza a China para Morgan Stanley, escribe hoy sobre los retos que enfrenta la economía de ese país. Argumenta que para seguir creciendo, requiere llevar a cabo importantes cambios estructurales como reglas transparentes, facilitar la migración del campo a la ciudad y fomentar el consumo. Como siempre, es lectura obligada para quienes estén interesados en esa nación.

También vale la pena notar que compara a China con América Latina, encontrando en ese último caso una sobria advertencia del destino que podría enfrentar la nación asiática. Estos dos párrafos son clave:

"Sustainability is, therefore, the most important concern in China’s economic development strategy. The world is littered with examples of countries that experienced decades of rapid economic growth, followed by economic stagnation or even decline. Argentina, Brazil, and Southeast Asia are the most prominent examples. These economies have much more resources than China has and have better market access. Why did they fail?

The most important reason is that these economies did not create robust systems to support their economic development. They continued to depend on extensive government intervention to manage their economies. This dependence on executive action for economic growth tended to create incentives for political corruption to gain economic advantages. This eventually led to social corruption, i.e., people stopped believing in the future and tried to obtain personal gains with no apparent scruples. Such economies became more and more wasteful over time and had to borrow money to sustain living standards. When foreign lenders saw through their problems and stopped lending, these economies collapsed."
Ni qué decir. Es un resumen magistral.