Economía mexicana: Disfrutemos la recuperación mientras dure....

Grey Newman, el economista que sigue a América Latina en Morgan Stanley, escribe hoy sobre las perspectivas del sector industrial en México. Con base en los últimos números, concluye que el primer semestre de este año será muy bueno (crecimiento anualizado de 5%), pero que ya hay señales preliminares que apuntan a una desaceleración en la segunda mitad del año. Cito sus conclusiones:

"Mexico is starting the year growing at a faster pace than most expected was likely just three or fourth months ago. With the link alive and with the foresight that the lag between the US and Mexico cycles provides us, we are comfortable predicting that even better news is in store for Mexico’s industrial plant in the months to come. Don’t be fooled by 2% or 3% year-over-year comparisons in the coming months, Mexico’s industrial output is likely to grow at an annualized pace of 6% or more. "

"But we would caution against extrapolating from the robust first months to form a full-year view of Mexico. During the second half of the year, we are ready for disappointment with the pace of growth on both sides of the border. And without strong US export demand, Mexico’s recovery is likely to falter. Call me overly cautious, but I’m not willing to construct a robust story for Mexico that continues uninterrupted throughout 2004. The risks arising from the imbalanced global growth picture in 2004 are simply too great. What is most interesting is that the leading indicators most important to Mexico’s economy are beginning to suggest caution even as the most immediate data points are still likely to be turning up."