jueves, mayo 20, 2004

Más sobre la profecía automotriz

Ayer (ver entrada previa) comenté que el alza simultanea en los precios de la gasolina y en las tasas de interés representa una grave amenaza para las tres grandes empresas automotrices de Estados Unidos, cuya salud financiera es precaria. Hoy, el Washington Post aporta información que empieza a confirmar esta predicción. Los párrafos clave:


"Sales of truck-based SUVs fell in April, and sales of small cars went up. Automakers rushed to the aid of SUVs, which is where they earn most of their profit, lowering base prices and offering more incentives than on any other type of vehicle. At the same time, they raised prices on small cars.

"Gas prices seem to be the most likely reason why. . . . As long as they stay around where they are or higher, there is going to be some shifting of the market," said Jesse Toprak, director of pricing and market analysis for Edmunds.com. That's bad news for domestic automakers, who are "especially vulnerable because they make most of their profits from large SUVs and large trucks, and if demand softens, it's going to hurt their bottom lines for sure," he said.

No one is pronouncing the death of the SUV, and car companies insist they are not worried about long-term fallout from higher gas prices. "I think folks have their blinders on when they are just looking at gas prices because the much more important factor . . . is the overall economic environment," said George Pipas, U.S. sales analyst for Ford Motor Co. Inflation, interest rates and unemployment are so low, he said, that "we don't expect to see a substantial shift in sales mix" despite the bigger bite at the fuel pump. "


Es cierto que el buen desempeño económico en materia de empleos e ingreso mantendrá a flote a las ventas de vehículos como un todo, pero esto no significa que el cambio en el precio de la energía no afectará la mezcla de ventas. Además, mi impresión es que los estadounidenses todavía no se han dado cuenta que todo apunta a que los precios del petróleo se mantendrán altos durante años (esto lo indican los futuros de crudo). Cuando asimilen esto, mi impresión es que habrá un cambio significativo en las preferencias, que beneficiará sobre todo a los fabricantes asiáticos.


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