viernes, septiembre 21, 2007

Gráfica del día: Tipo de cambio dólar - euro

Es notable que el dólar cotice a 1.42 por euro, un máximo histórico. Para tener un poco más de perspectiva, podemos ir más atrás, tomando como referencia el antecesor del euro (el ecu, una moneda ficticia que representaba una canasta de divisas de los países que formaron la Unión Monetaria Europea).


Es interesante que el nivel cercano a 1.40 dólares por euro ha sido una suerte de techo máximo, que fue alcanzado en dos episodios previos. Ambos (1980-82, 90-91) coinciden con el actual en cuanto a que fueron momentos de debilidad económica en Estados Unidos y (un "y" importante) y precios altos del petróleo. De hecho, en la recesión de 2001 el dólar se mantuvo fuerte.

Si bien la correlación no es causalidad, ciertamente crece la evidencia que hay un vínculo entre la debildiad del dólar y el precio del petróleo. En general, se atribuye a que los países productores de Medio Oriente importan mucho más de Europa, por lo cual el poder de compra de cada barril depende también de su precio en euros. Dicho de otra manera, buscan que el precio del petróleo en dólares suba para compensar la debildiad de esta divisa.

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Que? Los productores de petroleo quieren hacer subir el precio del petroleo - cotizado en dolares - para compensar la debilidad del dolar? Yo que bola habia pensado que querian amarrocar mas vento. Para los finos: optimizar su poder adquisitivo. Que te parece cuantos dolares quiere Hugo Chavez por un barrilico de oro negro? la respuesto: Mucho.

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