martes, noviembre 30, 2004

El dólar y la economía mexicana

El tema du jour es qué va a pasar con el dólar. Si bien la moneda estadounidense ya acumulaba una caída de más de 30% en los últimos tres años ante las principales divisas de reserva, la reelección de George W. Bush y la perspectiva de otros cuatro años de locura fiscal está propiciando un aceleramiento en el ajuste del dólar.

Ya conocen la letanía: Estados Unidos tiene un déficit con el exterior de casi 6% del PIB, un nivel muy alto que refleja la diferencia entre el gasto y el ingreso nacional (o entre la inversión y el ahorro doméstico). Este hoyo tiene que ser tapado con flujos de capital del exterior y los extranjeros ya no creen que Estados Unidos seguirá presentando las mejores cifras de crecimiento del mundo industrializado. Ergo, no seguirán enviando tanto dinero y el dólar tendrá que caer. Stephen Roach, de Morgan Stanley, predica este sermón cada semana.

Este seguramente será el tema que dominará la discusión en este ámbito por mucho tiempo. Y créanme que no tiene nada de sencillo. Lo abordaré a detalle en las próximas semanas.

Por lo pronto, ¿cómo afectaría una caída del dólar a la economía mexicano? Aquí está mi primer intento para responder esta pregunta. En general, el diagnóstico no es favorable.

Una caída del dólar implica alzas en las tasas de interés y un desaceleramiento (o incluso contracción si las cosas se salen de control) del consumo en ese país. Eso por definición tiene un impacto negativo en las exportaciones mexicanas, pase lo que pase con el peso (en realidad, los movimientos cambiarios inciden muy poco en las exportaciones nacionales).

Lo único que podría amortiguar este golpe sería aprovechar el otro lado de la moneda: la apreciación del yen, del euro y similares. Desafortunadamente, no veo que México se pueda beneficiar mucho. Las exportaciones a Europa y Japón apenas representan el 5% del total, por lo que incluso si asumimos un fuerte crecimiento (cosa que no se ha dado en los últimos tres años pese a la ya considerable apreciación de esas divisas) tardará años en tener un impacto notable. Tampoco hay muchas perspectivas de que las empresas de esos países utilicen a México como plataforma para exportar a EUA.

En el ámbito financiero, cabe recordar que casi toda nuestra deuda extranjera está en dólares, por lo cual resentiremos cualquier alza en las tasas de interés estadounidenses. Asimismo, es en extremo improbable que los flujos dirigidos a EUA actualmente se transfieran a México u otros países emergentes.

En resumen, la caída del dólar representa malas noticias para México. Si a esto añadimos nuestro teatro del absurdo en la arena política, los próximos dos años podrían resultar más complicados de lo que están tomando en cuenta los precios de los activos financieros mexicanos.

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